Rough landing continued

More on the Soyuz TMA-11 rough landing:

• “Possible Soyuz separation problem under scrutiny”, Spaceflight Now, 22/4. The Instrument Assembly Module (the rear section, PAO) may have been attached longer than intended when beginning descent, forcing the Descent Module (SA) into a ballistic profile. The previous Soyuz landing also had separation problems.
• “The Real Soyuz Problem – Looking Past the Smoke and Flames”, James Oberg for NASASpaceflight.com, 27/4. This article is more critical of Russian space officials who have a habit of downplaying or covering up safety issues. (Relevant thread at NSF.)

Soyuz sensationalism

The rough ballistic landing of Soyuz TMA-11 is still getting media attention (most somewhat sensationalist, with reports of the crew being “lucky to survive”). One of the staff at Novosti Kosmonavtiki is critical of this sensationalism in News №699:

23/04/2008/00:33 – Soyuz TMA-11 crew alive, not because of accident, but through technology reliability

On Tuesday evening the Interfax news agency has filed a report with “details” on the ballistic descent trajectory of the spacecraft Soyuz TMA-11 which took place on April 19. The information is citing “a source close to a commission to investigate the causes of what happened."

The essence of the message is reflected in its title: “Soyuz crew nearly died". A message is contained in the “evidence” as to why this could happen.

I do not want to even refer to the “technical details of the incident” - until the findings are published commission giving the reasons why the Soyuz TMA-11 deorbited in a ballistic descent mode, they are all just assumptions, not facts. And, very controversial and unambiguous.

But about the title I want to say a few words.

No one will disagree that any flight into space is full of dangers and no one will give a 100% guarantee that it will end successfully. Especially when unexpected contingencies happen. But...

But the normal mode of ballistic descent is intended precisely for this. Yes, it causes cosmonauts certain inconveniences, but saves their lives. And this is most important. That means you must not dramatize what happened with the Soyuz TMA-11.

As early as 1960 the writer Gennadii Semennikhin wrote a poem (of course, this is not Pushkin, but for this situation it reflects the gist of what happened):

Everything does not always go smoothly,
They do not always return in time,
But the orbit will be in order,
If there is a flame of courage.

Не всегда всё свершается гладко,
Не всегда возвращаются в срок,
Но орбита будет в порядке,
Если мужества есть огонёк.

Close to midnight Roscosmos responded to Interfax’s report that by that time had been republished in many electronic publications.

“The reports about the threat to the life of astronauts who returned on Saturday from the ISS – based on unaudited data – do not stand up to scrutiny from the technical point of view and generally harm the Russian space industry,” said the head of Roscosmos press service Aleksander Vorobyov. “The information published with reference to the unnamed and very incompetent source, is nothing more than negative PR. Publications of this kind are directed against the implementation of the Russian-American agreement on the purchase by NASA from Russia of Soyuz and Progress spacecraft after the cessation of shuttle flights to the ISS,” Vorobyov said.

It is probably quite close to the truth. One should always remember the old truth: “Look for who benefits.”

“Space crew’s hard landing raises hard questions”, James Oberg, MSNBC.com, 21/4.

“Superstitions run rife after Soyuz mishap”, Yahoo News/ABC News, 22/4. I would have doubts about the veracity of Australian Sky and Space Magazine editor Dave Reneke’s remarks – he seems a bit biased (and being an astronomer does not make one a manned spaceflight expert!).

Another rough landing

Expedition 16 commander Peggy Whitson, Soyuz commander Yuri Malenchenko and South Korean guest cosmonaut So-Yeon Yi undocked in Soyuz TMA-11 and landed safely on 19/4, but it was another ballistic re-entry and they were 475 km short of the landing zone! The previous Soyuz flight, TMA-10, had the same problem, as did Expedition 6 in TMA-1. The crew endured up to 10.5 G’s briefly, though they were generally unharmed. There was about a half-hour delay between landing and re-establishment of communications, which also caused some worry! (The Expedition 16 thread from landing onwards at NASASpaceflight.com covers the landing.)

Also, Russian Federal Space Agency chief Anatolii Perminov made some rather tactless remarks about women on board being bad luck:

Later, Perminov was asked about the presence of two women on the Soyuz, and referred to a naval superstition that having women aboard a ship was bad luck. “You know in Russia, there are certain bad omens about this sort of thing, but thank God that everything worked out successfully,” he said. “Of course in the future, we will work somehow to ensure that the number of women will not surpass” the number of men. Challenged by a reporter, Perminov responded: “This isn’t discrimination. I’m just saying that when a majority [of the crew] is female, sometimes certain kinds of unsanctioned behavior or something else occurs, that’s what I’m talking about.”

– “Astronauts rescued as capsule lands off-target”, MSNBC.com, 19/4.

Maybe he was joking (and the superstition is an old one), but Peggy Whitson probably won’t be impressed! I ranted about archaic attitudes to women in my 16/10/2007 entry.

Monkeys to Mars?

“Russia tests monkeys for Mars trip”, BBC News, 14/4. Poor monkeys! I thought this sort of experiment belonged in the past; it won’t help Russia’s image. They should find some human volunteers and send them – I’m sure there would be plenty who would volunteer, despite the risks! Also, how do they think the monkeys would cope with the months of confinement? Unlike humans, the monkeys would have no understanding of why they were being enclosed for so long, and would probably be insane when they got back.

“Russia To Create Manned Assembly Complex In Orbit”, Space Daily, 14/4. Will this come true or is it another empty promise, as grumbled about in my 16/4 entry?

“Russia To Build New Space Center In The Far East”, RIAN/Space Daily, 15/4. Andrei Kislyakov opinion piece. The financing for the project seems doubtful as there could be cost overruns.

“In last Soviet outpost, space pioneers cling on”, Space Daily, 15/4. Many people in Baikonur prefer to stay there rather than return to Russia.

Empty promises

Some Russian officials – or reporters – have an unfortunate habit of making ambitious statements about things their space program will do, with nothing to verify it. An example is “Russia claims to be ahead in race to put man on Mars” (8/1). This inevitably leads to much derision and no-one taking them seriously, as the reactions to the article in this thread at NASASpaceflight.com display:

As for the Russian space program in this world, I personally look forward to every one of their news releases about their future plans, each more ridiculously audacious than the previous. Still waiting for “Russia Plans Alpha Centauri Mission”. I know it’s coming one day.

Reminds me of the fable “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” – meaning that, if Russia ever does begin a serious Mars mission, no one will believe them! Perhaps the better option is to keep silent, plan and develop a mission in secret then surprise everyone by announcing on launch day that they’re going to Mars. China is secretive about their space program; perhaps that’s what they’re doing!

Be nice if Russia could surprise everyone and get to Mars before 2020 (or better, 2015) – but that seems unlikely, unless they get a President who is a spaceflight enthusiast.

“Space Research Can Improve Life On Earth”, RIA Novosti, 11/4.

“Scrap unlucky 13th mission: Russian space chief ”, Space Daily, 14/4. Anatolii Perminov suggests renaming Soyuz TMA-13 to -14 out of superstition! Maybe he is joking! Though remember what happened to Apollo-13…

“Russia continues flight simulation experiments for Mars-500”, RIA Novosti, 15/4. Four volunteers will spend ten days in a compression chamber with a reduced oxygen level as preparation for Mars-500; this will provide information on the physiological impact of a flight to Mars and back. No date for the experiment given in the article.

Happy Cosmonautics Day!

Energiya said it would need $5 billion to complete the ISS Russian segment.

“Will Russia give space industry a boost?”, MSNBC.com, 11/4. Some items discussed at a conference dedicated to Cosmonautics Day:

• Space tourist flights will end after 2010 with the increase of the ISS crew to 6 (which will include 3 Russian cosmonauts).
• All Russian manned space programs would be transferred to the new cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East region of Amur, Vostochny, Восточны, by 2020.
• The Angara heavy booster rockets should continue to be developed.

The Buran test-analog OK-GLI arrived in Germany, transported by barge to the Speyer museum (description on their site). It is still described in some news articles as the orbiter that flew in space! It was an atmospheric model only, with two jet engines attached. Some photos of the journey along the river are at NASASpaceflight.com.

I was very enthusiastic about the Buran orbiter for a while, up to the hangar collapse in May 2002. After that I became disheartened and lost much interest (the Buran-Energiya program was unlikely to be resurrected again).

ISS RS delays

“Russian ISS segment construction delayed for 5 years”, RIA Novosti, 10/4. Insufficient funding means the completion of the ISS RS might be pushed back from 2010 to 2015, requiring Russia to request of the other partners that the ISS lifetime be extended to 2020.

Sergei Krikalyov news:

• Energiya photo-report, 7/4: “Baikonur launch site, branch office of S.P.Korolev RSC Energia A meeting of the State commission was held. Director of Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center V.V. Tsibliev reported about the crew readiness for the planned spaceflight. RSC Energia President and General Designer V.A. Lopota reported about readiness of the Soyuz FG/Soyuz TMA-12 rocket-space complex for further prelaunch processing. The State commission approved the prime and backup crews for the Soyuz TMA-12 spacecraft and the ISS-17 and also a decision was adopted to continue preparation of the Soyuz-FG/Soyuz TMA-12 rocket-space complex for fueling and launch at the set time on April 8, 2008, namely at 15 hr. 16 min Moscow time.” Sergei appears in photos 7, 8, 11.
• «Космонавты могут снимать более качественно, чем спутники – Крикалев», RIA Novosti, 10/4.

Cosmonauts can photograph better than satellites, says Krikalyov

A skilled cosmonaut onboard the International Space Station can make a photo of the surface of the Earth, of a quality comparable to the pictures received from satellites that cost hundred millions of dollars; besides he, unlike the automatic device, can analyze a situation and make pictures at the appropriate angles, Russian cosmonaut Sergei Krikalyov considers.

Krikalyov, the record-holder for the total duration of flights on the Mir space station and the ISS, presented on Thursday an exhibition of photos from space, as part of the Institute of Space Research (IKI) exhibition “Science on the ISS Russian segment”.

“NASA experts expected that from a camera in a manual mode with a telephoto lens from board the ISS, the pictures would turn out with a resolution worse than 15 meters. However the photos taken through windows have shown, after a careful studying of the ground, that separate pictures are obtained with a resolution of 10 meters, and with using the nadir (a point opposite to zenith) – about 5 meters,” said Krikalyov, answering a question from RIA News.

He explained that automatic satellites cannot replace a person as some Earth sites are often overcast above, and only a person can – having analyzed real-time conditions – take pictures at the correct angle.

“Even NASA experts say that they are reconsidering their attitude to the photos taken in a manual mode by cosmonauts. Earlier they relied only on photos from satellites,” the cosmonaut said. He also said that with the advent of new digital technology on board the ISS may enable things previously inaccessible. “For example, Polar Lights [aurora] from space appeared recently, and I am confident that no one else has done such imagery,” said the cosmonaut.

Six-flight veteran Krikalyov said that he took both art photography, and images on behalf of the Roscosmos and NASA. He used film at first, then Nikon digital cameras with a 400-millimetre telephoto lens and an extender.

From Novosti Kosmonavtiki news №696:

11/04/2008/00:09 – A mini-satellite will be released from a Progress cargo ship for studying lightning

In 2009 in orbit a unique experiment will be carried out for the first time: after undocking from the ISS, the Progress space cargo ship will release a mini- satellite, «Чибис», “Chibis” (“Lapwing”), intended for studying lightning, reported Leo Zelenyi, the head of the Institute of Space Research (IKI) RAN (Russian Academy of Science). The Chibis “mini- satellite”, intended for studying lightning discharges, is planned to first be delivered to the ISS with the flight of the Progress cargo ship, after which the following Station crew will install a container with the small automatic spacecraft inside the Progress, which is usually deorbited. This ship, which depleted its resources as part of the ISS, not will be deorbited immediately, but instead raised in orbit by height about 500 kilometers, where the automated mini-satellite will be separated from the cargo ship, a scientist explained.

“The ship itself after this will be brought down from orbit and deorbited in the calculated unnavigable region of the Pacific Ocean,” added Zelenyi.

Cosmonaut Sergei Krikalyov added, from his side, that in RKK Energiya at present begins the fundamental decision of conducting of this unique experiment. “We must study the question of ballistics, make a decision about servicing the Progress before launch with an additional volume of fuel so that it would be sufficient to raise the cargo ship to an altitude of 500 kilometers,” said the cosmonaut. The mass of the Chibis satellite is 40 kilograms, scientific instruments weigh 12.5 kilograms, and additional equipment is 18.2 additional kilograms. The satellite is developed by the specialists of the Institute of Space Research.

Soyuz TMA-12 into orbit

Soyuz TMA-12 launched yesterday at 11:16:39 UTC with Expedition 17 and Visiting Crew-14 (South Korean astronaut Yi So-yeon). Somewhat surprisingly there are Koreans living in Baikonur and Kazakhstan (courtesy of Joseph Stalin).

Yi So-yeon (I think Yi is her surname, if last names are presented first in Chinese fashion) has the usual intimidating array of qualifications (a biosystems engineer) and is a tae-kwon-do expert. She seems very enthusiastic.

Sergei Volkov is the son of a cosmonaut, Aleksandr Volkov, and is the first second-generation cosmonaut to go into space.

“Three Rocketeers For Shenzhou”, Space Daily, 9/4. Three Chinese astronauts are to go into space and one will make China’s first spacewalk later this year (at the time of the Olympics), but there is annoyingly little information about them or the mission!

TsUP (Moscow Mission Control) has redesigned its website, so it looks a bit better, but the same annoying Javascript menu is required to navigate – if you don’t have Javascript enabled, or are using a text browser, the site is inaccessible.

ATV docked

The ATV successfully docked to the ISS on 4/4. The NASA Human Spaceflight Gallery has some nice photos from its earlier test run for the docking on 31/3.

“Response to a reporter of a Russian periodical: Upper stages Block DM built by S.P.Korolev RSC Energia are of highest reliability” on the Energiya site; apparently even some Russian reporters can’t get the facts accurate on their own country’s space program! The name of the publication isn’t given.

Sergei Krikalyov sightings in photos (he is looking ever-greyer :-( – he’ll be 50 this year!):

• 4/3: Novosti-Kosmonavtiki photo gallery: «Торжественное собрание в посольстве Чехии по случаю 30-летия первого пилотируемого полёта по программе «Интеркосмос» » (ceremonial meeting at the embassy of the Czech Republic on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the first manned flight program Intercosmos). Sergei appears in photos: 7, 28, 67, 69.
• 18/3: Energiya photo-report: “S.P. Korolev RSC Energia, Korolev, Moscow region. The Chief Designers Board meeting At OAO S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation Energia, the Chief Designers Board meeting chaired by V.A. Lopota, the Corporation President, General Designer, took place. Among the issues under review were the following: current state of the International Space Station Russian Segment and going on with its mission Program implementation, progress in prelaunch processing of Soyuz TMA-12 transport manned space vehicle and final works phase, which Expedition 16 crew will perform.” Sergei appears in photo 13.

The io9 blog mentioned a computer game based on a trilogy of novels by Russian author Alexander Zorich (actually two authors writing under the pseudonym); they write science fiction and fantasy novels, only available in Russia though (and not translated into English). The game is an alternative history where Russia has expanded into outer space and has contact (and conflict) with 4 alien races. I don’t know if I would like the novels or not if I were able to read them, but I would be curious to see how they would compare with the usual (and predictable) U.S./British sci-fi that dominates the novels available in Australia. (The sci-fi I like is of the “aliens and spaceships” sort.)